Make a joyful noise to the Lord,
all the earth.
Worship the Lord with gladness;
come into his presence with singing.
Psalm 100:1-2
We have decided to cancel our worship services for the next two Sundays, March 15 and March 22. We will decide later what happens after that.
Public health leaders are telling us that we are on the cusp of a dramatic increase in the spread of COVID-19. Although the virus is new, we do know several things about it:
- It is easily transmitted.
- The number of cases has been growing exponentially.
- People can have the virus and be contagious long before they show symptoms.
- Although most cases will be mild and most people will recover without hospitalization, COVID-19 is many times more deadly than the flu.
I hate cancelling church.
And I hate making that decision. (I am grateful to have been able to share the decision-making with Pastor Carol, but I still hate it.)
Sometimes there is a huge snowfall or a hurricane and there really is no choice, but most of the time you have to make the decision before you actually know what will happen. If you cancel and the predicted six to ten inches turns out to be two inches of slush, you feel pretty silly. On the other hand, if the predicted two inches of slush turns into two inches of ice . . .
Cancelling for COVID-19 is like cancelling for a snowstorm with the exception that the virus is deadly. A fender-bender in the snow is not likely to cause a death.
Epidemiologists tell us that although we cannot stop the spread of the disease, we can “flatten the curve” of its increase. We can slow the rate of growth and even if we do not reduce the number of cases, we can spread them out over a longer period of time.
At first that might seem counter intuitive.
Why not just get it over with?
The problem with the steep curve is that it means that health care facilities may be overwhelmed. This is happening in Italy where New York Times correspondent Jason Horowitz reports that Flavia Petrini, who is president of the Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care, said her group had issued guidelines on what to do in a period that bordered on wartime “catastrophe medicine.”
“In a context of grave shortage of health resources,” the guidelines say, intensive care should be given to “patients with the best chance of success” and those with the “best hope of life” should be prioritized.
Horowitz reports that the guidelines also say that in “in the interests of maximizing benefits for the largest number,” limits could be put on intensive care units to reserve scarce resources to those who have, first, “greater likelihood of survival and secondly who have more potential years of life.”
The most effective way for us to “flatten the curve” in the United States and restrain the increase in the number of cases is through social distancing. In order for social distancing to be effective, it needs to begin early. (Eliza Barclay and Dylan Scott wrote an excellent essay on this for VOX.com)
Dr. Wes Wallace of the University of North Carolina admits that "beginning our social distancing early may seem unnecessary or even silly." But scientists like Wallace tell us that if we wait until the need is obvious, it will be too late.
The church should claim an important role in slowing the spread of the disease. First by suspending services and reducing the points of contact for our people. And second, by modeling that behavior for the rest of the society.
This is not an easy time for us, as individuals, as families, as congregations, and as a global society. We need to work together.
For the Lord is good;
God's steadfast love endures forever,
and his faithfulness to all generations.
Psalm 100:5
Thank you for reading. Your thoughts and comments are always welcome. Please feel free to share on social media as you wish.
And I hate making that decision. (I am grateful to have been able to share the decision-making with Pastor Carol, but I still hate it.)
Sometimes there is a huge snowfall or a hurricane and there really is no choice, but most of the time you have to make the decision before you actually know what will happen. If you cancel and the predicted six to ten inches turns out to be two inches of slush, you feel pretty silly. On the other hand, if the predicted two inches of slush turns into two inches of ice . . .
Cancelling for COVID-19 is like cancelling for a snowstorm with the exception that the virus is deadly. A fender-bender in the snow is not likely to cause a death.
Epidemiologists tell us that although we cannot stop the spread of the disease, we can “flatten the curve” of its increase. We can slow the rate of growth and even if we do not reduce the number of cases, we can spread them out over a longer period of time.
At first that might seem counter intuitive.
Why not just get it over with?
The problem with the steep curve is that it means that health care facilities may be overwhelmed. This is happening in Italy where New York Times correspondent Jason Horowitz reports that Flavia Petrini, who is president of the Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care, said her group had issued guidelines on what to do in a period that bordered on wartime “catastrophe medicine.”
“In a context of grave shortage of health resources,” the guidelines say, intensive care should be given to “patients with the best chance of success” and those with the “best hope of life” should be prioritized.
Horowitz reports that the guidelines also say that in “in the interests of maximizing benefits for the largest number,” limits could be put on intensive care units to reserve scarce resources to those who have, first, “greater likelihood of survival and secondly who have more potential years of life.”
The most effective way for us to “flatten the curve” in the United States and restrain the increase in the number of cases is through social distancing. In order for social distancing to be effective, it needs to begin early. (Eliza Barclay and Dylan Scott wrote an excellent essay on this for VOX.com)
Dr. Wes Wallace of the University of North Carolina admits that "beginning our social distancing early may seem unnecessary or even silly." But scientists like Wallace tell us that if we wait until the need is obvious, it will be too late.
The church should claim an important role in slowing the spread of the disease. First by suspending services and reducing the points of contact for our people. And second, by modeling that behavior for the rest of the society.
This is not an easy time for us, as individuals, as families, as congregations, and as a global society. We need to work together.
For the Lord is good;
God's steadfast love endures forever,
and his faithfulness to all generations.
Psalm 100:5
Thank you for reading. Your thoughts and comments are always welcome. Please feel free to share on social media as you wish.
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